Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad31…c93a sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$258 (+29%) realized +$258 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$176
7 days+$158
14 days+$170
30 days+$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$115
other 32% +$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +65.0% +49.3% 55% 41% +13.8%
≤30d 40 +46.5% +32.5% 52% 35% +15.3%
≤90d 40 +46.5% +32.5% 52% 35% +15.3%
all 40 +46.5% +32.5% 52% 35% +15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.5% 35% +15.3%
10% +19.9% 25% +4.3%
15% +8.3% 20% -5.8%
20% -2.3% 18% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$9 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage18d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $43 +$3 +7%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $94 −$9 -9%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +37%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $12 −$5 -37%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +41%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $88 −$5 -6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 +$216 +2024%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $25 −$20 -80%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 +$17 +84%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $27 +$26 +98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +88%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$11 +167%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 $0 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Raja Club Athletic vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $95 −$71 -74%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $75 +$20 +27%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $51 −$6 -11%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $9 −$1 -12%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $5 $0 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $39 −$5 -13%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $68 +$80 +118%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 +$1 +5%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 4.5 May 31 $5 −$2 -35%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 98¢ $1 51m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $25 53m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $18 53m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $11 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $6 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $8 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $55 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $32 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $15 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $9 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $29 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 9¢ $8 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 12¢ $4 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 13¢ $4 3h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 24¢ $34 5h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 5h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $8 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $25 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $25 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $25 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $42 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $0 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $45 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 251 history records