Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad2f…ac6a sports 507 markets active 1h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12,787 (+6%) realized +$12,778 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate92%465W / 41L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$425per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$387est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,106
7 days+$4,012
14 days+$6,154
30 days+$7,725
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$12,389
other 0% +$9
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +4.3% -5.7% 98% 9% -2.0%
≤30d 139 +3.9% -6.0% 95% 8% -3.5%
≤90d 475 -1.5% -10.9% 92% 6% -4.3%
all 506 +0.2% -9.3% 92% 8% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 8% -4.3%
10% -18.0% 4% -13.5%
15% -25.9% 3% -21.8%
20% -33.2% 2% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$544) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$79 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.91 per $1 lost it wins $4.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$12,778
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses465 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$387
Open positions1
Markets (closed)506 / 507
History coverage199d
Avg bet$425
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $124 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $352 +$11 +3%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,922 +$116 +4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2,522 +$454 +18%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,310 +$11 +1%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $341 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,418 +$89 +4%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2,253 +$187 +8%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,191 +$65 +3%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3,285 +$88 +3%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $97 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $411 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A Jun 15 $65 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $225 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,337 +$29 +1%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $78 +$7 +9%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $3,305 +$29 +1%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $307 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $2,703 +$677 +25%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $382 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $229 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $187 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,369 +$357 +15%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $174 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $35 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $2,492 +$1,628 +65%
Dota 2: MODUS vs 1p2m - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $55 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,459 +$60 +2%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas Jun 12 $373 +$5 +1%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Seize the day - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,434 +$21 +1%
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $21 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Phenomenon vs NA Last Hope - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Phenomenon vs NA Last Hope - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $678 +$6 +1%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Rune Eaters (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 10 $376 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $2,368 +$67 +3%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $984 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $824 +$3 +0%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 10 $79 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $2,306 +$65 +3%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $602 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $106 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $9 $0 +1%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $319 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 08 $43 $0 +1%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $184 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $125 31m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 99¢ $124 31m
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL Carstensz 100¢ $363 1h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 97¢ $352 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Spirit Academy 100¢ $40 11h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 99¢ $40 11h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Spirit Academy 100¢ $3,038 14h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 96¢ $2,922 14h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 99¢ $2,977 15h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 83¢ $2,522 15h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $1,322 17h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 99¢ $1,310 18h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Cloud Rising 100¢ $345 21h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 99¢ $341 21h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Cloud Rising 100¢ $2,507 23h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 96¢ $2,418 23h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 100¢ $2,440 23h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 92¢ $2,253 24h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 97¢ $2,191 33h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 100¢ $3,372 33h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 97¢ $3,285 34h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 99¢ $97 36h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $414 37h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 99¢ $411 37h
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A SELL Ivory 100¢ $66 39h
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A BUY Ivory 99¢ $65 39h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner SELL summer bear 100¢ $227 40h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 99¢ $225 40h
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner SELL Ivory 100¢ $100 40h
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Ivory 99¢ $99 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.65 · official $108.65 (match) · 1171 history records