trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | +18.4% | +7.1% | 62% | 31% | +8.7% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +18.4% | +7.1% | 62% | 31% | +8.7% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +18.4% | +7.1% | 62% | 31% | +8.7% |
| all | 13 | +18.4% | +7.1% | 62% | 31% | +8.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +7.1% | 31% | +8.7% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -3.1% | 23% | -1.7% |
| 15% | -12.5% | 23% | -11.2% |
| 20% | -21.1% | 23% | -19.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? | Yes | 81¢ | 94¢ | $221 | $257 | +$35 (+16%) |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 87¢ | 85¢ | $190 | $186 | −$4 (-2%) |
| Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? | Yes | 90¢ | 76¢ | $45 | $38 | −$7 (-15%) |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 73¢ | 80¢ | $33 | $36 | +$3 (+10%) |
| Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence? | Yes | 86¢ | 49¢ | $51 | $29 | −$22 (-43%) |
| Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $20 | $18 | −$2 (-10%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by June 30? | Jun 17 | $46 | −$21 | -45% |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $41 | −$4 | -8% |
| Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $8 | −$5 | -61% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? | Jun 17 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? | Jun 17 | $266 | +$17 | +7% |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? | Jun 17 | $30 | +$116 | +391% |
| Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? | Jun 17 | $103 | +$7 | +6% |
| Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $11 | −$11 | -96% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $200 | +$43 | +21% |
| Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $62 | +$38 | +61% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $104 | +$58 | +56% |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? | Jun 16 | $122 | +$9 | +7% |
| Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? | Jun 16 | $233 | +$2 | +1% |