Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AD 0xad2a…adfc other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$281 (+9%) realized +$256 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$2
14 days+$132
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$200
politics 31% −$109
sports 4% +$79
crypto 3% +$58
weather 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +40.7% +27.3% 64% 64% -9.3%
≤30d 22 +19.8% +8.4% 55% 55% -1.9%
≤90d 22 +19.8% +8.4% 55% 55% -1.9%
all 23 +18.7% +7.4% 52% 52% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 52% -3.8%
10% -2.9% 52% -13.0%
15% -12.3% 43% -21.5%
20% -20.9% 35% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$47 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$831
Realized+$256
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)23 / 38
History coverage97d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 39¢ $150 $210 +$60 (+40%)
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Yes 79¢ 97¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 68¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 57¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 28¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 25¢ 34¢ $19 $26 +$7 (+36%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 46¢ 20¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-58%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $50 $11 −$39 (-79%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $101 +$28 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $58 +$46 +79%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $50 +$15 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$65 +65%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$51 +495%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $132 +$129 +97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $102 −$10 -10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$111 +109%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $113 +$79 +70%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $645 −$88 -14%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Mar 24 $360 −$21 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $37 2h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 2h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $51 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 4d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 5d
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 5d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 6d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 6d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 7d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $58 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $51 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $830.75 · official $838.55 (match) · 63 history records