Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad2a…3a5e crypto 961 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,887 (+5%) realized +$2,887 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate83%798W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$2,616
other 17% −$142
tech 1% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -2.7% -12.0% 93% 1% -17.3%
≤30d 254 -1.2% -10.6% 93% 7% -11.6%
≤90d 961 -3.2% -12.4% 83% 40% -13.9%
all 961 -3.2% -12.4% 83% 40% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 40% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 10% -22.1%
15% -28.4% 5% -29.7%
20% -35.4% 3% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$46 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,887
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses798 / 163
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)961 / 961
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$59
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 961 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $91 +$3 +4%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $141 +$8 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$4 +6%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$2 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $332 +$29 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$4 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$3 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 15 $352 −$268 -76%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $105 +$7 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $141 +$8 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $141 +$10 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $141 −$123 -87%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $177 −$141 -80%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $141 +$9 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $325 +$52 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $70 +$6 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$1 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $140 +$7 +5%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $70 +$6 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $70 +$4 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +5%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $70 +$3 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $70 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $21 1h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 98¢ $10 21h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 21h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 21h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 23h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 23h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 24h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $70 24h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 24h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $70 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $70 24h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 24h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 24h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $6 24h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $6 42h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $20 42h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $11 44h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 44h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $2 44h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $70 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $70 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $69 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $70 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $70 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $52 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $70 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $70 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records