Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:54:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad26…dc93 sports 40 markets active 4d ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$215 (-21%) realized −$215 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$206
14 days−$206
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$75
other 32% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -37.4% -43.4% 33% 33% -33.3%
≤30d 12 -37.4% -43.4% 33% 33% -33.3%
≤90d 12 -37.4% -43.4% 33% 33% -33.3%
all 40 -14.1% -22.3% 42% 32% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 32% -25.8%
10% -29.7% 25% -32.9%
15% -36.5% 22% -39.4%
20% -42.7% 15% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$215
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage119d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $136 −$79 -58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $54 −$30 -57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $40 +$19 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$19 +38%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $169 +$22 +13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 12 $50 +$9 +17%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Mar 11 $11 −$11 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 06 $5 $0 -6%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $15 −$7 -44%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Mar 04 $33 +$13 +40%
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies Mar 01 $10 −$3 -25%
Will West Indies reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Mar 01 $5 −$2 -33%
Will India reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Feb 27 $5 +$1 +16%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand Feb 27 $20 −$4 -22%
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africa Feb 26 $40 −$20 -50%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs New Zealand Feb 25 $20 +$13 +64%
T20 World Cup: India vs Zimbabwe Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan Feb 24 $20 +$14 +68%
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs West Indies Feb 23 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $10 +$20 +198%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs England Feb 22 $10 +$7 +72%
T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs Pakistan Feb 21 $10 −$1 -12%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Oman (Game 1) Feb 20 $20 +$1 +6%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs Canada (Game 1) Feb 19 $5 −$5 -94%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 19 $5 +$13 +266%
T20 World Cup: Italy vs West Indies (Game 1) Feb 19 $15 +$4 +27%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs UAE (Game 1) Feb 18 $5 $0 +3%
T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1) Feb 17 $10 −$6 -61%
T20 World Cup: Ireland vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 17 $5 $0 +10%
T20 World Cup: Canada vs New Zealand (Game 1) Feb 17 $5 $0 +5%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Sri Lanka (Game 1) Feb 16 $11 +$12 +105%
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $23 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $54 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 29¢ $53 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $83 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 74¢ $101 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 11¢ $5 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY South Africa 32¢ $10 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland SELL Scotland 100¢ $60 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 80¢ $20 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 58¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY England 88¢ $169 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 5d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria SELL Rwanda 100¢ $59 5d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 85¢ $50 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 61¢ $11 100d
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 31¢ $22 102d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 103d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 104d
T20 World Cup: England vs India SELL England 19¢ $8 104d
T20 World Cup: England vs India BUY England 34¢ $15 105d
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand SELL New Zealand 73¢ $29 105d
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 43¢ $17 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records