Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

AD 0xad23…4679 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$24 (+17%) realized +$24 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +162% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +128% what you keep after slip

Net edge+128%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate88%7W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day5.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)+137.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+162.3%	+137.3%	88%	12%	+5.9%
≤30d	8	+162.3%	+137.3%	88%	12%	+5.9%
≤90d	8	+162.3%	+137.3%	88%	12%	+5.9%
all	8	+162.3%	+137.3%	88%	12%	+5.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+137.3%	12%	+5.9%
10%	+114.6%	12%	-4.2%
15%	+93.9%	12%	-13.5%
20%	+74.9%	12%	-21.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 95% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

86% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +162% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$1 · ×6.16 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×43.13 per $1 lost it wins $43.13

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$24

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)88%

Wins / losses7 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)8 / 8

History coverage3d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day5.1

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 8 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$47	−$1	-1%
Norway leading at halftime?	Jun 17	$3	$0	+0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$11	+$1	+8%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$21	$0	+0%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$2	+$23	+1290%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$9	$0	+1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$44	$0	+0%
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	Jun 14	$1	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	88¢	$4	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	88¢	$15	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	88¢	$2	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	88¢	$3	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	88¢	$18	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	88¢	$4	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	88¢	$47	1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	92¢	$11	13h
Norway leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	100¢	$3	14h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	7¢	$2	14h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	100¢	$21	14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	99¢	$9	16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	100¢	$44	43h
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	BUY Germany	100¢	$1	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records