Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad22…014a sports 1317 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,373 (+7%) realized +$2,316 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%688W / 627L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$483est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$232
14 days−$517
30 days−$1,148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$881
other 7% +$181
crypto 0% −$91
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -25.8% -32.9% 41% 35% -37.2%
≤30d 478 -3.4% -12.6% 48% 47% -15.1%
≤90d 1315 +4.5% -5.4% 52% 51% -7.2%
all 1315 +4.5% -5.4% 52% 51% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 51% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 50% -16.1%
15% -22.7% 46% -24.2%
20% -30.3% 39% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$24 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$2,316
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses688 / 627
Est. fees paid−$483
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1315 / 1317
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Mentality Monster 46¢ 100¢ $51 $111 +$60 (+117%)
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Karolina Muchova 43¢ 40¢ $31 $28 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 27 $31 −$1 -2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 22 $41 −$1 -2%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Alexander Isak: 3+ shots Jun 20 $53 +$58 +109%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $30 +$8 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $36 +$25 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $18 +$12 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 −$91 -100%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $26 +$11 +42%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $29 −$28 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $41 +$19 +48%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $33 +$52 +156%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $88 +$67 +76%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 19 $23 −$23 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $29 −$28 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $50 −$31 -61%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $141 +$87 +62%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $91 −$54 -59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $73 −$73 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $60 +$40 +67%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $35 +$14 +41%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $116 −$62 -53%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $17 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 +$20 +39%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $74 +$27 +37%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $96 +$49 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$8 +39%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $56 +$34 +61%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $81 +$11 +14%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $25 −$10 -41%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $45 +$45 +100%
Map Handicap: ex-MANA (-1.5) vs Passion Academy (+1.5) Jun 18 $36 +$29 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se SELL Red Feet 34¢ $31 12m
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 46¢ $25 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 46¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 46¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 46¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Red Feet 34¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Red Feet 34¢ $5 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Karolina Muchova 43¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Red Feet 34¢ $26 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ $26 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 50¢ $40 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 57¢ $74 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 42¢ $46 6d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $101 6d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Zero Tenacity 79¢ $30 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $45 6d
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) BUY Gentle Mates 37¢ $26 6d
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) BUY Gentle Mates 35¢ $2 6d
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) BUY Gentle Mates 35¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 59¢ $36 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 59¢ $18 6d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 48¢ $63 6d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 56¢ $12 6d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY INOX Division 60¢ $60 6d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 61¢ $28 6d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 43¢ $6 6d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 70¢ $10 6d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 70¢ $4 6d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 71¢ $11 6d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 40¢ $18 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.38 · official $139.38 (match) · 3500 history records