Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad1e…2ad4
other · 57 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$162 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$95 · open −$87
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$762
Realized−$95
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions24
Markets (closed)33 / 57
History coverage19d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%
Chart Positions 24 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$71
14 days+$8
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? No 53¢ 38¢ $165 $119 −$46 (-28%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $95 $101 +$6 (+6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $91 $65 −$26 (-29%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $62 $58 −$4 (-7%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 23¢ 29¢ $46 $58 +$12 (+26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $17 $32 +$15 (+86%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $21 $26 +$4 (+21%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $35 $22 −$12 (-36%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Yes 40¢ 19¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-52%)
Will Ugo Humbert be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $18 $8 −$10 (-57%)
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+37%)
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Oliver Glasner be the next manager of AC Milan? No 38¢ 13¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 15¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $45 +$2 +4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $80 −$2 -2%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Jun 11 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Logan Stankoven win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 11 $0 $0 -13%
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? Jun 11 $27 +$56 +210%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $38 −$9 -24%
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 10 $0 $0 +7679%
Will paiN qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $30 +$22 +74%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Pierre Sage be the next manager of Crystal Palace? Jun 03 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $35 +$3 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $21 −$15 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $14 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $7 +$4 +62%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $9 +$41 +460%
Will flameZ win an HLTV MVP award by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $103 +$2 +2%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 30 $83 −$83 -99%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 30 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $56 +$7 +12%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $39 +$2 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $47 +$7 +15%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $20 +$48 +238%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - ESL Challenger League No May 27 $136 +$5 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $15 +$17 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% −$180
sports 14% +$3
world 11% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $79 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $43 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $78 1h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 17h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 22h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 22h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+52.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +281.5% +245.1% 62% 38% +15.3%
≤30d 33 +68.0% +52.0% 58% 36% -17.3%
≤90d 33 +68.0% +52.0% 58% 36% -17.3%
all 33 +68.0% +52.0% 58% 36% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +52.0% 36% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here +37.4% 24% -25.2%
15% +24.2% 24% -32.4%
20% +12.0% 21% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $761.68 · official $759.68 (match) · 444 history records