Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad1d…e1b0 crypto 1536 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$157 (-1%) realized −$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate88%1385W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day89.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$190
7 days−$129
14 days−$141
30 days−$490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$316
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 581 -2.5% -11.8% 88% 24% -12.0%
≤30d 1568 -2.5% -11.8% 88% 23% -12.2%
≤90d 1568 -2.5% -11.8% 88% 23% -12.2%
all 1568 -2.5% -11.8% 88% 23% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 23% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 13% -20.6%
15% -28.0% 8% -28.3%
20% -35.0% 3% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1385 / 183
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1568 / 1536
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day89.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1568 Trades
no open positions (160 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 1AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $56 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $8 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $8 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $8 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $8 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $24 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records