Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad1b…1d65
other · 144 markets active 2h ago
5.0score
+$719 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$762 · open −$43
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$3,298
Realized+$762
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions135
Markets (closed)9 / 144
History coverage10d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit22%
Chart Positions 135 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$741
7 days+$762
14 days+$762
30 days+$762
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $353 $356 +$2 (+1%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 85¢ 84¢ $157 $156 −$1 (-1%)
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 66¢ $151 $152 +$1 (+1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $134 $136 +$2 (+1%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 84¢ $129 $118 −$12 (-9%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 71¢ 72¢ $115 $116 +$1 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $95 $100 +$5 (+5%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 84¢ $81 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $78 $79 +$1 (+1%)
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+2%)
Will Manuel Neuer record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-2%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 91¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-2%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 78¢ 77¢ $58 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Will Senegal finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 91¢ 88¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-3%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will "The Odyssey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? No 93¢ 90¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-4%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 70¢ 64¢ $44 $40 −$4 (-8%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 88¢ 88¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 78¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 97¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+17%)
Will Qatar be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 97¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( Jun 12 $47 +$3 +7%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $2,776 +$512 +18%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $836 +$114 +14%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $814 +$112 +14%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $29 +$11 +38%
Will Karmine Corp win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +17%
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 07 $18 +$7 +42%
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 58% +$745
other 37% −$28
world 2% −$16
culture 1% −$2
politics 1% −$2
sports 1% +$18
finance 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY No 94¢ $19 1h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $495 in June? BUY No 94¢ $9 1h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in June? BUY No 89¢ $18 1h
Will Scotland finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY No 76¢ $6 1h
Will Manuel Neuer record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 89¢ $36 1h
Will Manuel Neuer record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 88¢ $6 1h
Will "The Odyssey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete BUY Yes 96¢ $7 1h
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 45¢ $5 1h
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 1h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $8 1h
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $60 1h
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 71¢ $14 1h
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 82¢ $33 2h
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 75¢ $23 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 85¢ $26 2h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 78¢ $59 2h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $56 2h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $26 6h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $24 6h
Will Senegal finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY No 91¢ $27 6h
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $54 6h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $34 6h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $35 6h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $55 6h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 95¢ $38 6h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 95¢ $6 6h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $48 6h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $46 6h
Will Germany be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $28 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.2% +7.9% 100% 78% +5.7%
≤30d 9 +19.2% +7.9% 100% 78% +5.7%
≤90d 9 +19.2% +7.9% 100% 78% +5.7%
all 9 +19.2% +7.9% 100% 78% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.9% 78% +5.7%
10% -2.5% 22% -4.5%
15% ← realistic here -11.9% 22% -13.7%
20% -20.5% 0% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,297.81 · official $3,297.27 (match) · 260 history records