Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad19…10d2 crypto 58 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$133 (+8%) realized +$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate71%41W / 17L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day105.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$35
other 4% +$47
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +4.7% -5.3% 71% 62% -4.9%
≤30d 58 +4.7% -5.3% 71% 62% -4.9%
≤90d 58 +4.7% -5.3% 71% 62% -4.9%
all 58 +4.7% -5.3% 71% 62% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 62% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 45% -14.0%
15% -22.6% 33% -22.3%
20% -30.2% 14% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$19 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses41 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day105.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$88 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $307 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $37 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records