Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad18…0b4f sports 1643 markets active 0h ago coverage 180d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 180d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$79,502 (-47%) realized −$79,497 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%572W / 1059L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$694est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 180d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$12,579
crypto 6% +$2,433
other 5% +$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 219 -37.2% -43.2% 25% 25% -73.9%
≤30d 384 -11.2% -19.6% 34% 34% -48.8%
≤90d 893 -13.9% -22.1% 34% 34% -31.6%
all 1631 -11.2% -19.7% 35% 35% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 35% -20.8%
10% -27.4% 35% -28.4%
15% -34.4% 34% -35.3%
20% -40.8% 34% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$100 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$79,497
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses572 / 1059
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$694
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1631 / 1643
History coverage180d ⚠
Avg bet$102
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1631 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 29¢ 24¢ $24 $19 −$5 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Kings Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Mets vs. Pirates Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Storm vs. Lynx Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Tigers Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Phillies vs. Astros Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Alanyaspor vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Pistons vs. Pacers Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Penguins vs. Kings Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Utah vs. Sharks Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Rays vs. White Sox Jun 16 $125 −$125 -100%
Orioles vs. Padres Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: Both Teams to S Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bloomfield Bears vs. Wagner Seahawks Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Panthers vs. Ducks Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
USC Trojans vs. Oregon Ducks Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2025-10-23? Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Cardinals vs. Guardians Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2025-11-18? Jun 16 $109 −$109 -100%
Hornets vs. Raptors: 1H Moneyline Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Mercury vs Fever Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Pelicans vs. Bulls Jun 16 $151 −$151 -100%
Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H Moneyline Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Slovakia win on 2025-09-04? Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Valentin Vacherot Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Oilers vs. Penguins Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Yankees vs. Red Sox Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Astros vs. Diamondbacks Jun 16 $206 −$206 -100%
Liberty vs Wings Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Tigers Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Sabres vs. Bruins Jun 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Dodgers vs. Cardinals Jun 16 $101 −$98 -97%
Nationals vs. Dodgers Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Islanders vs. Golden Knights Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will New York City FC win on 2025-11-23? Jun 16 $239 −$239 -100%
Bruins vs. Sharks Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Cardinals vs. Mariners Jun 16 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Osasuna vs. Celta Vigo end in a draw? Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H Moneyline Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Kentucky Wildcats Jun 16 $109 −$109 -100%
Avalanche vs. Predators Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Dodgers vs. Pirates Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Angels vs. Astros Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
76ers vs. Pistons Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Guardians vs. Mets Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Samsunspor vs. AEK end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $86 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $31 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $81 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $29 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $50 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up $11 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $74 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $20 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $50 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $20 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.45 · official $19.45 (match) · 3500 history records