Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AD 0xad16…0300 crypto 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$212 (-30%) realized −$212 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$57
other 36% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +600.0% +533.3% 33% 33% +187.2%
≤30d 3 +600.0% +533.3% 33% 33% +187.2%
≤90d 3 +600.0% +533.3% 33% 33% +187.2%
all 68 +21.2% +9.7% 37% 31% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 31% -35.2%
10% -0.8% 26% -41.4%
15% -10.4% 26% -47.1%
20% -19.2% 21% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +448% too few recent
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$212
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage241d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$38 +3527%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 24 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 24 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 24 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 19 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 19 $15 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 19 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 19 $25 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 19 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 19 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 19 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 19 $55 +$25 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 19 $24 −$16 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 19 $22 +$14 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 19 $5 +$11 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 19 $1 +$4 +479%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 19 $5 +$8 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 19 $5 +$5 +107%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Mar 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026 Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $38 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $25 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $83 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $7 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $36 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $25 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $15 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $17 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records