Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad15…84bd crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate89%25W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -3.5% -12.7% 89% 18% -11.2%
≤30d 28 -3.5% -12.7% 89% 18% -11.2%
≤90d 28 -3.5% -12.7% 89% 18% -11.2%
all 28 -3.5% -12.7% 89% 18% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 18% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 4% -19.7%
15% -28.7% 4% -27.5%
20% -35.7% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$15 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses25 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records