Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad14…cadc other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$1
other 22% +$4
politics 9% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% −$1
sports 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 7% -9.6%
all 51 +0.2% -9.4% 41% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 4% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage456d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $32 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $23 −$2 -7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $77 −$4 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $19 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $31 +$3 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $32 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $7 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $16 +$4 +23%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $35 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $4 −$1 -24%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $1 $0 -30%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $2 $0 -3%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 03 $13 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 02 $14 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 02 $4 $0 -6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 01 $14 $0 +1%
Wimbledon: Draper vs. Baez Jul 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 26 $12 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 14 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 10 $12 $0 -4%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $4 +$3 +77%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 02 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 5h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $32 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $5 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $27 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $22 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $2 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $21 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $11 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $23 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $34 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $15 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $25 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $10 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $31 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $2 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $23 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $16 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $11 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $6 29d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $6 29d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 29d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $0 29d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $0 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records