Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad12…a803 world 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$568 (-12%) realized −$474 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days−$250
14 days−$557
30 days−$630
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$240
world 32% −$1,064
sports 2% +$76
politics 2% +$50
culture 2% +$49
finance 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -40.3% -46.0% 25% 25% -21.0%
≤30d 17 +4.9% -5.1% 47% 47% -29.4%
≤90d 36 -6.1% -15.1% 53% 53% -24.1%
all 54 +0.4% -9.2% 41% 41% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 41% -23.7%
10% -17.9% 31% -31.0%
15% -25.8% 28% -37.7%
20% -33.1% 22% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$45 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized−$474
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)54 / 60
History coverage154d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 75¢ 58¢ $297 $232 −$65 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $90 $77 −$13 (-14%)
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $42 $40 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 36¢ 17¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $670 −$97 -14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $504 −$504 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $750 +$400 +53%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $19 +$78 +403%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $13 +$14 +114%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $115 −$115 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$7 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $40 +$5 +13%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $153 +$49 +32%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $20 +$21 +103%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $11 −$2 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 25 $19 +$11 +58%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 25 $35 −$26 -74%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $52 +$7 +14%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $38 +$15 +39%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $26 +$13 +48%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $15 −$15 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $50 +$28 +56%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? May 01 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $16 +$13 +79%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $15 +$10 +67%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $30 +$17 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $28 +$5 +18%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 21 $88 +$50 +57%
Will Sweet Dreams of Joy - Viva Verdi win Best Original Song at the 98 Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Mar 16 $5 +$50 +1010%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 16 $10 +$70 +703%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 15 $18 +$5 +30%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film a Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will The Alabama Solution win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98t Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $104 1m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $72 19m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 20m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 20m
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $42 21m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $105 23m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $151 26m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $9 41m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $1 42m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $37 42m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $1 43m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $3 46m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $13 47m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $2 47m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $54 49m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $72 59m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $2 59m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $2 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $32 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $16 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $121 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $2 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $4 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $7 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $30 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $90 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $6 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $31 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $48 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.57 · official $355.57 (match) · 222 history records