Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:39:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AD 0xad11…52f4 crypto 1533 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,913 (-4%) realized −$1,913 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate72%1103W / 430L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day43.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$5
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$509
weather 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -5.4% -14.4% 65% 43% -14.3%
≤30d 1132 -8.5% -17.2% 66% 5% -11.3%
≤90d 1533 -6.7% -15.6% 72% 7% -10.7%
all 1533 -6.7% -15.6% 72% 7% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 7% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 7% -19.3%
15% -31.1% 6% -27.1%
20% -37.8% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,913
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1103 / 430
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1533 / 1533
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1533 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records