Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad11…7c9c other 10 markets active 4d ago coverage 55d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-10%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$13
sports 11% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 50% -53.7%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 50% -53.7%
≤90d 10 +14.5% +3.6% 70% 70% -19.1%
all 10 +14.5% +3.6% 70% 70% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 70% -19.1%
10% -6.4% 70% -26.9%
15% -15.4% 50% -33.9%
20% -23.7% 20% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage55d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +41%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $11 +$5 +41%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $10 +$4 +36%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $8 +$2 +24%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 25 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $21 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 5d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 34d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 37d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 37d
Rockets vs. Lakers SELL Rockets 88¢ $14 48d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 64¢ $10 48d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 52d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 55d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records