Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AD 0xad11…3c2c crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$336 (-13%) realized −$336 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate48%29W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$408
other 3% −$49
sports 2% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -76.1% -78.4% 0% 0% -70.3%
≤30d 3 -76.1% -78.4% 0% 0% -70.3%
≤90d 4 -70.2% -73.1% 0% 0% -69.9%
all 60 -19.6% -27.2% 48% 35% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 35% -27.0%
10% -34.2% 25% -34.0%
15% -40.6% 18% -40.4%
20% -46.4% 13% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% too few recent
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$33 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses29 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage178d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $93 −$49 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 06 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 14 $9 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 14 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 14 $45 −$17 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 14 $37 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 13 $43 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 13 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 13 $69 −$59 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 13 $113 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 13 $45 +$24 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 13 $60 −$59 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 13 $75 −$10 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 13 $60 −$44 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 13 $22 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 10 $3 −$1 -38%
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 10 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 10 $18 −$17 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 02 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 02 $80 −$46 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 02 $80 +$31 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 02 $107 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 02 $80 +$45 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 02 $60 +$21 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Dec 27 $9 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Dec 23 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Dec 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Dec 23 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Dec 23 $34 +$11 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Dec 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Dec 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Dec 23 $80 +$35 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Dec 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Dec 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Dec 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Dec 23 $120 +$37 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Dec 23 $48 +$27 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Dec 23 $60 +$53 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 23 $40 +$93 +232%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 23 $40 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 23 $40 −$37 -92%
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 2AM ET Dec 23 $40 +$24 +61%
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Dec 23 $40 +$56 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 14m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 3¢ $44 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $9 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $6 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $6 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $8 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $19 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $19 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $26 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $15 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $16 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $21 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $16 156d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $16 156d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $14 156d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $3 156d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 156d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $14 156d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $14 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records