Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad10…b35c other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,971 (-18%) realized −$3,010 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 34L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$966now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$490
7 days−$3,149
14 days−$3,179
30 days−$3,167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$3,698
other 43% +$786
crypto 1% −$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +14.1% +3.3% 19% 13% -46.2%
≤30d 35 +10.0% -0.5% 23% 11% -41.9%
≤90d 49 +54.4% +39.7% 31% 16% -30.4%
all 49 +54.4% +39.7% 31% 16% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.7% 16% -30.4%
10% +26.4% 16% -37.0%
15% +14.1% 16% -43.1%
20% +3.0% 16% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +72% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$174 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$966
Realized−$3,010
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage58d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? No 56¢ 56¢ $567 $562 −$5 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $205 $210 +$5 (+2%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? No 55¢ 74¢ $131 $176 +$45 (+35%)
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 72¢ $23 $17 −$6 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $292 +$730 +250%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $241 −$235 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $272 −$22 -8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $241 −$235 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $123 −$120 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $198 −$194 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $137 −$3 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $170 −$170 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $170 −$170 -100%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,140 −$1,047 -92%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $415 −$407 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,677 +$24 +1%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $405 +$16 +4%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $137 −$27 -20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $425 +$593 +140%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $15 +$722 +4900%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $140 −$140 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $418 −$414 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$5 +82%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 22 $917 −$762 -83%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 22 $181 −$7 -4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 22 $537 −$537 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -20%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $121 −$118 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 -8%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $915 +$88 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 07 $432 −$62 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $1,899 +$105 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $8 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 04 $1,212 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 01 $13 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 01 $1,422 −$13 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $53 +$192 +360%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $17 +$37 +216%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $10 +$226 +2256%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $198 −$197 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $575 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $210 8h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $241 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 25¢ $250 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $272 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $241 27h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $292 27h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $123 27h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $198 27h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $240 40h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $127 40h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $170 44h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $240 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $170 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $137 2d
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $8 2d
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 78¢ $85 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 78¢ $2 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 78¢ $1 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 78¢ $2 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 78¢ $2 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1,140 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $415 2d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 53¢ $30 2d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? SELL No 63¢ $19 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 85¢ $1,701 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 42¢ $420 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $110 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $965.69 · official $965.69 (match) · 365 history records