Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad10…448e sports 507 markets active 1h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,755 (-1%) realized −$1,747 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate51%254W / 241L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$49
14 days+$46
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$458
sports 4% +$195
other 3% −$1,030
world 2% −$105
crypto 1% +$42
culture 0% −$311
economics 0% −$78
weather 0% −$50
tech 0% +$24
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 42% +3.5%
≤30d 77 -11.6% -20.0% 49% 43% -14.0%
≤90d 164 -12.4% -20.8% 51% 42% -17.4%
all 495 -14.6% -22.8% 51% 40% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 40% -10.5%
10% -30.2% 31% -19.1%
15% -36.9% 24% -26.9%
20% -43.1% 19% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$21 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized−$1,747
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses254 / 241
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions12
Markets (closed)495 / 507
History coverage608d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 495 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 54¢ $51 $54 +$2 (+5%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $47 $46 −$2 (-3%)
Portugal leading at halftime? No 43¢ 42¢ $43 $41 −$1 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 40¢ 40¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? No 55¢ 56¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 48¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 42¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Refuser 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $39 +$2 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $13 +$8 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $11 +$10 +83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 −$13 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $39 +$61 +156%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $55 +$45 +83%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $49 +$51 +104%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $64 −$63 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $3 +$1 +32%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $200 +$10 +5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$5 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$2 +40%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3 +$2 +57%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $5 +$5 +105%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2 +$2 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$3 +66%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2 +$1 +46%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 +$2 +76%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $8 $0 -2%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 +$2 +41%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$4 +73%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $13 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $6 +$7 +123%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $19 −$3 -15%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $15 +$3 +23%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $13 +$5 +40%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $11 $0 -1%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $6 +$5 +79%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $2 +$1 +30%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 59¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $48 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $13 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $7 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $1 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $3 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $3 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $1 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $1 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 7h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 7h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $4 7h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 7h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 7h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $0 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $0 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $6 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 86¢ $34 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 86¢ $22 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 86¢ $12 10h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $11 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $24 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 94¢ $39 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $11 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.73 · official $302.73 (match) · 3125 history records