Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AD 0xad10…4962 crypto 1181 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$313 (+3%) realized +$313 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%531W / 650L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$293
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 -2.0% -11.3% 40% 40% -6.9%
≤30d 283 -2.0% -11.3% 40% 40% -6.9%
≤90d 343 -2.6% -11.8% 41% 41% -9.0%
all 1181 +2.9% -6.9% 45% 45% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 45% -6.3%
10% -15.8% 44% -15.3%
15% -24.0% 44% -23.5%
20% -31.4% 43% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$313
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses531 / 650
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1181 / 1181
History coverage222d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1181 Trades
no open positions (389 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$8 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$8 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$8 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$4 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$8 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$8 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2521 history records