Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:58:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0xad0c…25ad
crypto · 562 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$236 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$236 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$236
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses341 / 220
Open positions1
Markets (closed)561 / 562
History coverage31d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day62.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 561 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 70¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 397 +14.6% +3.7% 73% 44% -11.0%
≤30d 554 +7.4% -2.9% 61% 36% -16.1%
≤90d 561 +7.2% -3.0% 61% 36% -15.9%
all 561 +7.2% -3.0% 61% 36% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover62.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 36% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 33% -24.0%
15% -20.8% 29% -31.3%
20% -28.5% 14% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.09 · official $0.99 (match) · 2446 history records