Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad0b…99d3 other 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 243L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$45
sports 26% −$15
politics 7% −$8
culture 7% −$8
economics 5% $0
crypto 4% −$4
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)254 / 255
History coverage138d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $283 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $356 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $140 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $615 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $741 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $234 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $292 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $743 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $360 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $165 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $186 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $177 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $315 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $527 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $285 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $357 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $71 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $147 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 06 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $248 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $247 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $294 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 1h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 2h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 4h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 5h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 6h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 11h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 12h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $64 14h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $64 17h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 24h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 25h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 27h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 29h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $29 37h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $35 39h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $64 40h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 45h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 47h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $35 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $29 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $65 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $65 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.51 · official $63.51 (match) · 1399 history records