Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad08…08a8 crypto 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$813 (-23%) realized −$806 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%37W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$449
14 days−$860
30 days−$907
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$852
sports 16% −$89
other 2% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -30.6% -37.2% 31% 31% -40.1%
≤30d 96 -28.1% -35.0% 39% 38% -34.2%
≤90d 96 -28.1% -35.0% 39% 38% -34.2%
all 96 -28.1% -35.0% 39% 38% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 38% -34.2%
10% -41.2% 34% -40.5%
15% -46.9% 29% -46.3%
20% -52.1% 18% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$28 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$806
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses37 / 59
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage14d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 51¢ 28¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$24 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $46 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$59 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $94 −$91 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$16 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$29 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $66 +$32 +48%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $68 +$48 +70%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $131 −$130 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$13 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $108 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -13%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$14 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$42 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$91 +263%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $67 −$34 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $68 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$16 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $57 −$40 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$17 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $84 −$17 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $68 +$46 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $105 −$75 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $68 +$75 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $71 −$68 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $16 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $19 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $17 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $41 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $41 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $46 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $44 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $42 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $55 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $52 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $81 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $51 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $42 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.09 · official $8.09 (match) · 227 history records