Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad02…9cc8 crypto 888 markets active 3d ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate55%528W / 426L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day78.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$127
14 days−$123
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -42.7% -48.1% 32% 0% -16.0%
≤30d 781 -9.8% -18.4% 57% 10% -10.8%
≤90d 954 -7.4% -16.3% 55% 11% -10.6%
all 954 -7.4% -16.3% 55% 11% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 11% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 2% -19.2%
15% -31.6% 0% -27.0%
20% -38.3% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses528 / 426
Open positions0
Markets (closed)954 / 888
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day78.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 954 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$6 -132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records