Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacff…6cdc world 41 markets active 2d ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-3%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$22
world 29% −$15
other 16% −$3
culture 11% +$1
politics 5% $0
crypto 4% +$1
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -26.4% -33.4% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -10.7% -19.2% 10% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -10.7% -19.2% 10% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -5.0% -14.0% 38% 5% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 5% -11.9%
10% -22.2% 2% -20.3%
15% -29.8% 0% -28.0%
20% -36.6% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage462d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 87¢ 54¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $78 −$6 -8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $79 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $109 −$4 -4%
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) Mar 18 $130 −$23 -18%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 16 $144 −$1 -1%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 15 $143 +$1 +0%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 15 $5 +$1 +31%
Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5 Mar 15 $128 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 14 $8 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $16 −$5 -32%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 06 $14 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Mar 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $17 $0 +3%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Trump say "Jew" or "Jewish" 3+ times during his presser with Irel Mar 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 140-149 times on Truth March 7-14? Mar 10 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $37 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $20 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $13 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $21 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 41¢ $19 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $31 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $42 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $39 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $19 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $13 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $11 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $12 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $43 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $43 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records