Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AC 0xacfe…c247 crypto 1472 markets active 0h ago coverage 180d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 180d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,322 (-1%) realized −$1,322 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate77%1140W / 331L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$18
14 days+$114
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,686
sports 1% +$13
other 0% +$70
politics 0% −$34
tech 0% +$14
finance 0% −$6
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -1.7% -11.0% 62% 62% -8.5%
≤30d 68 +8.5% -1.8% 69% 69% -6.4%
≤90d 109 -0.6% -10.1% 65% 61% -8.5%
all 1471 +5.9% -4.1% 77% 45% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 45% -10.6%
10% -13.3% 30% -19.1%
15% -21.7% 15% -26.9%
20% -29.4% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$52 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$1,322
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses1140 / 331
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1471 / 1472
History coverage180d ⚠
Avg bet$95
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1471 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 22? Yes 23¢ 25¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 22? No 73¢ 75¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? Jun 28 $1,192 $0 -0%
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 27 $10 +$18 +178%
Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 10+ times during the Jun 27 $10 +$2 +19%
Will "Stock Market" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca Jun 26 $20 +$7 +37%
Will "Border" be in the headlines this week? Jun 26 $6 +$2 +25%
Will "Trump" be in the headlines this week? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +25%
Will "AI / Artificial Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the next e Jun 24 $20 +$5 +27%
Will "Music" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Mountain" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod Jun 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Will "India / Indian" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Jun 24 $20 +$5 +27%
Will "Korea / Korean" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Jun 24 $20 +$6 +30%
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Hollywood" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Disney" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the wee Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "California" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stan Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience o Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Tesla" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Middle East" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of th Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be in the headlines this week? Jun 24 $6 +$2 +25%
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience Jun 23 $10 +$3 +27%
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 23 $10 +$13 +133%
Will "Attention" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 23 $10 +$4 +35%
Will "Television" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 23 $10 +$10 +96%
Will "Drug" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 23 $10 +$5 +47%
Will "Water" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 23 $10 +$3 +30%
Will "UFC" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week o Jun 23 $10 +$11 +108%
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Will "Understand" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Will "Illegal" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the we Jun 23 $8 +$10 +122%
Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $0 $0 +89%
Will "Stock Market" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 20 $9 +$4 +45%
Will "AI" be said 35+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 20 $10 +$4 +37%
Will "Biology" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +37%
Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 10+ times during the Jun 20 $9 +$2 +21%
Will "Football" or "Soccer" be in the headlines this week? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +25%
Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 5+ times during the Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will "People" be said 200+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience Jun 17 $10 +$40 +400%
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Will "Woman" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $10 +$5 +47%
Will "Water" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will "Understand" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will "Music" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $10 +$13 +133%
Will "Power" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will "Television" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 17 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Trump post "Ted" or "Cruz" on Truth Social this week? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? SELL Yes 93¢ $358 8m
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? SELL Yes 93¢ $835 17m
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 93¢ $96 1h
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 93¢ $501 1h
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 93¢ $201 1h
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 1h
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 93¢ $62 1h
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 93¢ $201 2h
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 13h
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 15h
Will "Stock Market" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc BUY Yes 28¢ $3 32h
Will "Border" be in the headlines this week? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 2d
Will "Trump" be in the headlines this week? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 3d
Will "Stock Market" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc BUY Yes 28¢ $0 3d
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 3d
Will "Stock Market" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc BUY Yes 28¢ $6 3d
Will "Stock Market" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Will "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca BUY No 73¢ $10 3d
Will "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca BUY No 73¢ $10 3d
Will "AI / Artificial Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the next e BUY Yes 79¢ $10 3d
Will "AI / Artificial Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the next e BUY Yes 79¢ $10 3d
Will "India / Indian" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade BUY Yes 79¢ $10 3d
Will "India / Indian" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade BUY Yes 79¢ $10 3d
Will "Korea / Korean" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade BUY Yes 77¢ $10 3d
Will "Korea / Korean" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade BUY Yes 77¢ $10 3d
Will "Mountain" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 3d
Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 10+ times during the BUY Yes 84¢ $10 3d
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be in the headlines this week? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.13 · official $21.13 (match) · 3500 history records