Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacfc…f2fd crypto 223 markets active 18d ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-1%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate63%140W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$249
sports 18% +$134
other 9% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 162 -2.9% -12.2% 77% 48% -12.3%
≤90d 223 -2.2% -11.5% 63% 38% -11.5%
all 223 -2.2% -11.5% 63% 38% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 38% -11.5%
10% -20.0% 9% -20.0%
15% -27.7% 5% -27.7%
20% -34.8% 4% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses140 / 83
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)223 / 223
History coverage47d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 223 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$6 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2AM ET Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$8 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$5 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12AM ET Jun 09 $29 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11PM ET Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET Jun 09 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET Jun 09 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET Jun 09 $29 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET Jun 08 $30 −$16 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET Jun 08 $30 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$7 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8AM ET Jun 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$4 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET Jun 08 $29 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET Jun 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$8 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8PM ET Jun 08 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$3 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7AM ET Jun 07 $30 +$5 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $29 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $29 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $29 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $29 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.73 · official $15.73 (match) · 541 history records