Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:20:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xacfa…0298 politics 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-2%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% +$49
other 14% −$24
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 50% +3.4%
≤30d 4 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 50% +3.4%
≤90d 4 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 50% +3.4%
all 4 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 50% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 50% +3.4%
10% -23.6% 25% -6.5%
15% -31.0% 25% -15.5%
20% -37.8% 0% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$24 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage7d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $79 +$39 +49%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $70 +$10 +15%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $117 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 66¢ $79 36h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $80 39h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $70 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records