Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AC 0xacf9…780d other 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%30W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,516per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$25
14 days−$64
30 days+$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$466
politics 40% −$117
sports 15% +$515
culture 2% −$6
economics 1% −$5
world 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$3
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 57 +9.5% -1.0% 14% 11% -9.3%
≤90d 122 -3.0% -12.2% 10% 7% -10.3%
all 161 +7.6% -2.6% 19% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 13% -9.6%
10% -12.0% 13% -18.2%
15% -20.5% 11% -26.1%
20% -28.3% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,132) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$19 · ×4.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$1,125
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses30 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)161 / 164
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,516
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $894 $893 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $171 $173 +$2 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 62¢ $55 $59 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $418 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $989 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,814 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $5,802 −$5 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,598 −$4 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,484 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,066 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,853 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,251 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,995 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,126 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,119 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,225 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $1,121 −$1 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $64 +$67 +105%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $4,612 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,820 −$4 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,124 −$2 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $44 +$57 +129%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,071 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $9,245 −$12 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $43 +$63 +146%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $249 +$2 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $475 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,443 −$5 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,490 −$2 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $413 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $310 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $426 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $4,747 −$5 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $498 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 25 $70 +$65 +93%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $2,456 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $541 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $894 27m
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $560 2h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $561 3h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $418 3h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $418 6h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $987 43h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $989 47h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,023 47h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,024 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,057 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,058 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,053 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,060 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,061 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,056 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,058 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,059 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $960 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $962 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,061 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,062 6d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,064 6d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,066 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,065 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,066 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,071 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,072 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,067 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,125.23 · official $1,125.23 (match) · 540 history records