Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacf8…b2a1 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$1
politics 20% $0
other 17% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 5% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.3%
all 37 -0.0% -9.5% 24% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage285d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 73¢ 73¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $71 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $8 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $63 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $13 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $31 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Dec 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 17 $32 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $32 $0 -1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Sep 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $1 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $32 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $1 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $32 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $6 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $30 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $36 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $32 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $32 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $8 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $25 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $9 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $23 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $33 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $24 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $7 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $20 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.85 · official $32.85 (match) · 103 history records