Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AC 0xacf7…e433 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$234 (-29%) realized −$234 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$306
crypto 29% +$99
world 6% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.7% -0.8% 67% 67% -35.9%
≤30d 6 +9.7% -0.8% 67% 67% -35.9%
≤90d 6 +9.7% -0.8% 67% 67% -35.9%
all 6 +9.7% -0.8% 67% 67% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.8% 67% -35.9%
10% ← realistic here -10.3% 67% -42.1%
15% -18.9% 50% -47.7%
20% -26.9% 17% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$177 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $107 +$34 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $72 +$32 +45%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $471 −$327 -69%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 +$21 +42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$28 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $75 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $68 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 8¢ $19 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $201 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $72 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 12¢ $23 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $202 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records