Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacf4…20c2 crypto 583 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 138d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,969 (-16%) realized −$13,969 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%222W / 446L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$16,885
sports 3% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -47.7% -52.6% 13% 13% -82.6%
≤30d 176 -35.8% -41.9% 23% 23% -65.6%
≤90d 176 -35.8% -41.9% 23% 23% -65.6%
all 668 -18.8% -26.5% 33% 33% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.5% 33% -32.4%
10% ← realistic here -33.5% 32% -38.9%
15% -40.0% 31% -44.8%
20% -45.8% 30% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$121 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13,969
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses222 / 446
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)668 / 583
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$150
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 668 Trades
no open positions (431 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$7 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $197 −$197 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$14 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$17 -1373%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$20 -918%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$18 -866%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $99 −$113 -114%
LoL: MVK Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Jun 18 $9 −$6 -66%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 14? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on January 14? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$28 -140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $238 −$238 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $104 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records