Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AC 0xacf4…6c1c crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-28%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$14
sports 14% $0
other 7% −$3
world 5% −$2
weather 5% $0
politics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +93.1% +74.7% 100% 100% +74.7%
≤30d 2 +93.1% +74.7% 100% 100% +74.7%
≤90d 21 -32.5% -38.9% 33% 29% -48.9%
all 44 -22.9% -30.2% 41% 36% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 36% -37.0%
10% -36.9% 27% -43.0%
15% -43.0% 23% -48.5%
20% -48.6% 18% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 15 $6 −$5 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 12 $1 $0 +37%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $1 $0 -31%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Monday news conference? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $1 +$1 +53%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera Mar 28 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 19 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 19? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 19 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 18? Mar 19 $1 +$2 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on March 17? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 16 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 14 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 13 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 12 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 12 $1 +$1 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 56m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $1 58m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 59m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 30d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 30d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 33d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY No 73¢ $1 41d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? SELL No 48¢ $1 68d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 69¢ $1 68d
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Monday news conference? BUY No 50¢ $1 69d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $1 77d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders SELL Mumbai Indians 100¢ $2 77d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 55¢ $1 78d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Mumbai Indians 65¢ $1 78d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 100¢ $2 78d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 52¢ $1 78d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 87d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 87d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 88d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 18? SELL Yes 97¢ $3 88d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 89d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on March 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.99 · official $2.99 (match) · 110 history records