Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:06:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AC 0xacf3…08b1 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$3
other 24% +$2
politics 8% $0
weather 7% +$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 12 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -8.8%
all 35 -5.5% -14.5% 43% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 3% -8.7%
10% -22.7% 0% -17.4%
15% -30.1% 0% -25.4%
20% -37.0% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×5.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.0 per $1 lost it wins $6.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage474d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $4 $0 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $90 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $35 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $31 +$2 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $1 $0 -2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $1 $0 -6%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? May 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Apr 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 31? Mar 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 22 $1 $0 -5%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 65°F or higher on March 19? Mar 21 $13 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend? Mar 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 16 $14 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 4? Mar 03 $6 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $25 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $16 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $47 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $47 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $36 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $18 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $22 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $43 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $34 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $35 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $5 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $28 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $31 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $29 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $29 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.02 · official $25.27 (match) · 96 history records