Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AC 0xacf2…917c other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$130 (-19%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$106
14 days+$110
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$30
other 45% −$58
crypto 6% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +63.0% +47.5% 57% 57% +24.9%
≤30d 14 +31.3% +18.8% 36% 36% -8.8%
≤90d 21 +2.2% -7.5% 33% 29% -8.2%
all 21 +2.2% -7.5% 33% 29% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 29% -8.2%
10% -16.4% 29% -17.0%
15% -24.5% 29% -25.0%
20% -31.9% 29% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -69% → late +67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$24 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage53d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 +$133 +325%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 +$31 +52%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $45 +$33 +73%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $59 −$12 -20%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 +$39 +291%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $13 +$79 +596%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $31 −$29 -95%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $110 −$109 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $24 +$26 +108%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Apr 30 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Apr 30 $15 −$14 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 16h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $78 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $45 40h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $45 40h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 43h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 5d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes $13 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 7d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 8d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 10d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 10d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 10d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes $20 12d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes $11 12d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 22d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 23d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 32d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 32d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 39d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 39d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 39d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 39d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 39d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.58 · official $99.58 (match) · 44 history records