Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xacf0…b39c other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 697d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-1%) realized −$67 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate66%23W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$5,060now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$36
other 33% +$5
economics 3% +$4
sports 2% −$101
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 10 +21.0% +9.4% 100% 40% -8.4%
all 35 -11.1% -19.5% 66% 29% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 29% -12.1%
10% -27.2% 17% -20.5%
15% -34.3% 14% -28.2%
20% -40.7% 14% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

697d coverage
Net worth$5,060
Realized−$67
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage697d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down on June 24? Down 50¢ 50¢ $2,500 $2,525 +$25 (+1%)
XRP Up or Down on June 24? Up 50¢ 50¢ $2,500 $2,475 −$25 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Down 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 in May? May 08 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in May 2026? May 04 $505 +$1 +0%
Will FC Nantes vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? May 02 $1 $0 +18%
Will EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? May 02 $1 $0 +32%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays May 02 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 02 $105 +$7 +7%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Ratones (BO5) Oct 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Oct 19 $1 −$1 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Jul 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jul 03 $5 +$11 +212%
Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference? Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Sabato De Sarno out as creative Director of Gucci before February? Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Mar 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conf Mar 12 $4 +$7 +178%
Will the Commanders win the NFC Championship? Mar 12 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Kyler Murray win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 25 $107 −$107 -100%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2024? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will America ban Zyn in 2024? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Debt ceiling abolished before Trump inauguration? Jan 22 $3 $0 +12%
USD worth more than Euro before 2025? Jan 22 $5 +$1 +15%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? Jan 22 $20 $0 +1%
'Mufasa' vs. 'Sonic 3' opening weekend box office? Jan 22 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship? Jan 22 $60 +$3 +4%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 19 $777 +$1 +0%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 19 $1,010 +$1 +0%
Tavares vs. Park Dec 02 $2 +$1 +54%
Mitch vs. Rektober: September PnL Oct 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Megaquake in September? Oct 12 $2 $0 +6%
Eagles vs. Packers Sep 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana above $180 on August 2? Sep 04 $12 −$12 -100%
2024 Balance of Power: Other Jul 31 $290 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 99¢ $55 2h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $101 43d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? SELL No 100¢ $100 44d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 99¢ $100 45d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $506 50d
Will Solana reach $90 in May? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 51d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $505 51d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 51d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 51d
Will FC Nantes vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $1 246d
Will EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $1 246d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Ratones (BO5) BUY Los Ratones 54¢ $1 246d
Mariners vs. Blue Jays BUY Blue Jays 54¢ $1 246d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 97¢ $5 354d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 99¢ $5 354d
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? BUY No 26¢ $1 354d
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $105 467d
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? BUY No $1 467d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY No 32¢ $5 467d
Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conf BUY No 36¢ $4 516d
Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference? BUY No 21¢ $2 516d
Will Kyler Murray win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY Yes $23 516d
Will Kyler Murray win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY Yes $84 516d
Will the Commanders win the NFC Championship? BUY No 98¢ $90 550d
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship? BUY No 96¢ $60 550d
Sabato De Sarno out as creative Director of Gucci before February? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 550d
Debt ceiling abolished before Trump inauguration? BUY No 89¢ $3 550d
USD worth more than Euro before 2025? BUY No 87¢ $5 550d
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? BUY No 99¢ $20 550d
'Mufasa' vs. 'Sonic 3' opening weekend box office? BUY Sonic 98¢ $20 550d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,060.35 · official $5,060.35 (match) · 73 history records