Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:20:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xacee…afdd sports 467 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$716 (+5%) realized +$770 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%236W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day36.6pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$211
7 days+$313
14 days+$57
30 days+$618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$859
other 7% −$559
world 1% +$79
crypto 1% +$185
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 +5.7% -4.4% 50% 50% -6.4%
≤30d 461 +5.8% -4.2% 51% 51% -5.5%
≤90d 461 +5.8% -4.2% 51% 51% -5.5%
all 461 +5.8% -4.2% 51% 51% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 51% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 49% -14.6%
15% -21.8% 47% -22.8%
20% -29.4% 42% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$30 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized+$770
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses236 / 225
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions6
Markets (closed)461 / 467
History coverage18d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day36.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 461 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 81¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 52¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) New York Yankees 26¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 35¢ 18¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-49%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 32¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$36 +118%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$60 +118%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $51 +$63 +122%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $51 +$81 +158%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 17 $51 +$149 +291%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$74 +145%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $51 +$58 +114%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $51 +$43 +84%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $51 +$35 +69%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$11 +23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $50 +$10 +20%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 16 $51 +$93 +183%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$57 +112%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$7 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $51 +$37 +73%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $50 +$22 +44%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$184 +360%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $67 32m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 35¢ $51 53m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $111 58m
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY New York Yankees 26¢ $51 59m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 32¢ $51 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 12h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $114 17h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 19¢ $51 17h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 20h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 45¢ $51 21h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 50¢ $51 21h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $51 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $50 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $125 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $50 23h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 25¢ $51 23h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $51 23h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $91 26h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 55¢ $51 27h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 46¢ $51 36h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $51 36h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 38¢ $51 36h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $51 37h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $51 38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $51 39h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 53¢ $51 39h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $51 39h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $51 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.97 · official $210.98 (match) · 887 history records