Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xaceb…8514 other 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 256L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$41
sports 27% −$22
politics 8% −$8
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$6
crypto 6% −$5
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 187 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 266 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 256
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage136d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $613 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $611 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $124 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $199 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $260 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $876 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $425 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $458 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $167 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $203 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $587 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $162 −$1 -1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $617 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $228 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $247 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $390 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $687 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $452 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $221 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 3h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 4h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 6h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $57 7h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $57 8h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 13h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 15h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 22h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 23h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 25h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 26h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $9 30h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 31h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 33h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 34h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 37h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 39h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 44h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 45h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1406 history records