Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xace9…8a64 other 25 markets active 5d ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$258 (-84%) realized −$258 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$88
14 days−$88
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$219
sports 15% −$34
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-83.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -75.4% -77.7% 14% 14% -74.4%
≤30d 15 -77.0% -79.2% 13% 13% -85.9%
≤90d 25 -81.7% -83.5% 12% 12% -87.7%
all 25 -81.7% -83.5% 12% 12% -87.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -83.5% 12% -87.7%
10% -85.0% 8% -88.9%
15% -86.5% 8% -90.0%
20% -87.8% 4% -90.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -82% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -91% → late -74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage45d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
United States to win the second half? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 13 $10 −$5 -49%
LoL: Misa Esports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Chelsea FC leading at halftime? May 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Draw at halftime? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 FC Bayern München? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
United States to win the second half? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes $5 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 6d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 18d
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 19¢ $5 35d
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 80¢ $5 35d
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 81¢ $5 35d
LoL: Misa Esports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - TCL Regular Season SELL Misa Esports 85¢ $6 36d
LoL: Misa Esports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - TCL Regular Season BUY Misa Esports 75¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 37d
Chelsea FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 39d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 39d
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 64¢ $10 39d
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 42d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 42d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 50d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 FC Bayern München? BUY Yes $5 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records