Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:57:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xace7…1824 crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$248 (+4%) realized +$150 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days−$190
14 days−$221
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$35
world 9% −$18
sports 6% +$64
other 2% +$55
politics 1% −$51
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.7% -22.8% 0% 0% -23.7%
≤30d 6 +16.8% +5.7% 33% 33% -4.9%
≤90d 8 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 25% -12.1%
all 29 -2.8% -12.0% 55% 31% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 31% -9.8%
10% -20.5% 28% -18.4%
15% -28.1% 17% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$56 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$150
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage238d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $1,000 29¢ 54¢ $116 $214 +$98 (+84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 20 $900 −$150 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 16 $316 −$40 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 10 $324 −$30 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 04 $107 −$11 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $330 +$91 +27%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 02 $207 +$253 +122%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 13 $998 −$192 -19%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? Mar 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 25? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $16 +$1 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 18 $159 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 17 $149 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 16 $153 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Feb 06 $136 +$84 +61%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 02 $134 +$4 +3%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Jan 31 $90 +$44 +49%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 23 $183 +$29 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 10 $45 −$10 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 8? Jan 08 $56 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 6? Jan 06 $318 −$113 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 25? Dec 25 $352 −$50 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 23? Dec 23 $180 +$18 +10%
Will BNB hit $1500 by December 31? Dec 15 $144 +$55 +38%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $48 +$2 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $81 +$19 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 29 $58 +$42 +72%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 29 $139 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $173 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $212 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $304 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $314 40h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $106 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 25¢ $276 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 26¢ $316 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $50 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 46¢ $76 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $66 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 58¢ $103 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 26¢ $45 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $196 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $44 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $166 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $198 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $96 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $107 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $211 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 85¢ $421 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $106 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $118 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $106 17d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 37d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 45¢ $207 44d
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? BUY $1,000 29¢ $116 46d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? SELL $60k 40¢ $283 67d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $60k 50¢ $185 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.00 · official $214.00 (match) · 134 history records