Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:18:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AC 0xace6…5556 sports 1128 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,388 (+7%) realized +$9,393 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%552W / 566L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$1,251est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$917now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$390
7 days+$4,913
14 days+$5,578
30 days+$4,879
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$8,614
other 6% +$370
world 0% −$66
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +41.7% +28.2% 67% 67% +15.7%
≤30d 161 +4.0% -5.9% 53% 52% -1.3%
≤90d 488 +4.2% -5.7% 49% 48% -1.3%
all 1118 -1.9% -11.3% 49% 49% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 49% -3.6%
10% -19.8% 49% -12.9%
15% -27.5% 47% -21.3%
20% -34.6% 41% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$88 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$917
Realized+$9,393
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses552 / 566
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,251
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1118 / 1128
History coverage247d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 30¢ 30¢ $333 $328 −$6 (-2%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs LGD Gaming 62¢ 60¢ $310 $302 −$8 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 56¢ $275 $282 +$7 (+3%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Amaru Gaming 40¢ 46¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $325 −$222 -68%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $305 +$401 +131%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $204 +$239 +118%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $204 −$144 -70%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $101 +$116 +114%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $64 +$36 +56%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $178 +$322 +180%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $305 −$305 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $285 −$281 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $493 +$753 +153%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $305 +$195 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $254 +$246 +97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $229 +$272 +119%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $552 +$448 +81%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $136 +$264 +194%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $158 +$342 +216%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $8,525 −$25 -0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $307 +$198 +65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $179 +$221 +124%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $561 +$383 +68%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $203 +$251 +124%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $188 −$187 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $866 +$634 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $174 +$206 +119%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $278 −$272 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $79 −$77 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $163 −$160 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $328 +$172 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $563 +$537 +95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $291 +$180 +62%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $307 +$323 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $39 +$28 +73%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 11 $202 +$121 +60%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $161 −$160 -99%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $198 +$102 +52%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $99 −$99 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $123 −$123 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $275 −$275 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $255 −$255 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $270 +$230 +85%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $276 +$224 +81%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $108 −$108 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $340 +$160 +47%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $227 +$173 +76%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $143 −$143 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $249 −$246 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 40¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 40¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $340 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 21¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 21¢ $21 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 21¢ $62 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $102 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $56 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $26 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $9 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $59 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $66 2h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 40¢ $0 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 62¢ $62 4h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 62¢ $62 4h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 62¢ $62 4h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 62¢ $62 4h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 62¢ $62 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY 7¢ $103 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 8¢ $103 11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 28¢ $153 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 32¢ $204 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 43¢ $305 40h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 91¢ $443 40h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $60 40h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $204 44h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $204 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $275 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $917.46 · official $1,117.51 · 3310 history records