Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xace6…eb7a world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$6
other 23% −$1
politics 3% $0
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -0.5% -10.0% 19% 6% -10.5%
≤90d 17 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 6% -10.4%
all 34 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -10.2%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage467d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $67 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $80 −$10 -12%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $111 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $35 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $4 $0 -7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $34 +$4 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $34 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? May 06 $2 $0 +5%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 240-249 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 08 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $15 −$1 -8%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +2%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $31 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $31 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $14 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $31 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $11 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $19 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $36 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $8 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $5 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $2 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records