Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xacdd…819d other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$706 (+6%) realized +$1,204 · open −$498
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$535per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$502now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$546
7 days+$628
14 days+$627
30 days+$627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$131
crypto 0% +$10
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.6% -5.4% 74% 63% +0.4%
≤30d 20 +3.8% -6.0% 70% 60% +0.4%
≤90d 20 +3.8% -6.0% 70% 60% +0.4%
all 20 +3.8% -6.0% 70% 60% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 60% +0.4%
10% -15.0% 35% -9.2%
15% -23.2% 30% -18.0%
20% -30.8% 15% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$792) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$322 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$502
Realized+$1,204
Unrealized−$498
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage8d
Avg bet$535
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 30¢ $1,000 $502 −$498 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $504 +$154 +31%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $507 −$483 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $507 +$340 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $792 +$2 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $305 +$320 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $763 +$333 +44%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $645 +$119 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,976 −$1,332 -67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,004 +$159 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,113 +$705 +63%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,071 +$41 +4%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $707 +$338 +48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$8 -38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 +$28 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $38 +$4 +11%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $507 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 2¢ $17 18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $847 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $507 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $507 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $792 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $763 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $645 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 28¢ $645 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,163 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $814 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $605 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $509 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,113 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,062 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $707 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $59 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $502.18 · official $502.18 (match) · 49 history records