Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AC 0xacdb…bb21 other 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%46W / 77L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$16
other 33% +$2
sports 18% +$1
politics 3% +$8
tech 2% +$7
finance 1% +$4
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 33 -0.7% -10.1% 21% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 48 +1.3% -8.3% 29% 4% -9.4%
all 123 +0.7% -8.9% 37% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses46 / 77
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage491d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $255 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $154 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $294 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $238 −$3 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $147 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $154 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $139 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $142 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $138 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $1,199 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $3 $0 -14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $394 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $142 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $142 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $272 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $142 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $322 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $153 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $141 −$2 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $4 $0 +5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $158 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $172 −$4 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $145 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $167 +$4 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $303 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $290 +$3 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $259 −$4 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $5 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $161 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $486 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $116 −$10 -9%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $528 +$2 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $149 +$7 +5%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $77 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $17 $0 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $9 +$3 +41%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $2,315 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $138 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,147 +$2 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $160 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Aug 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 03 $17 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $74 9m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $27 9m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $101 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $154 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $154 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $140 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $121 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $23 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $154 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $154 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $154 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $154 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $15 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $19 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.00 (match) · 512 history records