Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xacd9…bd1e other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$196 (+64%) realized +$196 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$195
other 39% −$1
world 7% +$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 -19.6% -27.2% 18% 0% -11.2%
all 15 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 13% +48.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 13% +48.4%
10% -17.9% 13% +34.2%
15% -25.9% 13% +21.2%
20% -33.1% 13% +9.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$0 · ×117.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×65.51 per $1 lost it wins $65.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage100d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 29 $6 $0 +1%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $1 $0 -30%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $1 $0 -13%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -40%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $1 $0 -33%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 16 $1 $0 -26%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $1 +$1 +113%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 13 $23 +$1 +6%
Rangers vs. Flyers Mar 11 $154 +$196 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 23d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 56d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 61d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $24 62d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $24 64d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 65d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 67d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 68d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 71d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $15 72d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $15 75d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $1 76d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $1 80d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $1 81d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 84d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $1 85d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 88d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 88¢ $23 89d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 87¢ $23 92d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL Yes $0 93d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL Yes $1 93d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes $1 95d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $24 95d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY No 47¢ $1 97d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $23 99d
Rangers vs. Flyers BUY Rangers 44¢ $154 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records