Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacce…d03b other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-10%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$56
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$65
crypto 15% −$3
sports 8% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -29.7% -36.4% 40% 30% -27.9%
≤30d 11 -22.8% -30.2% 45% 36% -23.4%
≤90d 11 -22.8% -30.2% 45% 36% -23.4%
all 11 -22.8% -30.2% 45% 36% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 36% -23.4%
10% -36.9% 27% -30.7%
15% -43.0% 27% -37.4%
20% -48.6% 9% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage7d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Jun 28 $46 −$3 -6%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $25 +$22 +85%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $19 +$4 +18%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $7 −$4 -55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $34 −$32 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $34 +$15 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 +$10 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 7¢ $43 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 7¢ $46 2h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $47 10h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $19 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $34 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $48 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records