Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacce…9ffd weather 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$187 (-23%) realized −$118 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$268
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.3% -17.1% 64% 64% -35.1%
≤30d 11 -8.3% -17.1% 64% 64% -35.1%
≤90d 11 -8.3% -17.1% 64% 64% -35.1%
all 11 -8.3% -17.1% 64% 64% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 64% -35.1%
10% -25.0% 36% -41.3%
15% -32.2% 0% -46.9%
20% -38.9% 0% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$73 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28? Yes 87¢ 35¢ $114 $46 −$67 (-59%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $92 +$29 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $111 −$110 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $181 −$180 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 28? Jun 27 $45 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 28? Jun 27 $74 +$20 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $61 +$13 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $49 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $39 +$10 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 +$6 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 +$4 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 87¢ $114 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $121 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 72¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 72¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 72¢ $99 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 69¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY Yes 30¢ $28 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY Yes 36¢ $39 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY Yes 45¢ $31 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 76¢ $44 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 77¢ $44 16h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 73¢ $48 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 78¢ $45 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $94 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 77¢ $74 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $74 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 82¢ $31 41h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 82¢ $30 42h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $61 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.38 · official $46.38 (match) · 37 history records